Baseline — terminal

● BASELINEknow your number

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Market monitorconnecting…

Allocation — discipline over edge

Capital

Worst loss you can sit through15%

Split—

Expected return—

Worst-case loss (2008-style)—

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Strategy reality-check30y · net

Approach	Return	Worst DD
T-bills	3.7%	0%
Put-write	8.5%	−33%
S&P 500	10.5%	−51%

The only thing that beats cash does it by taking equity-level risk. A risk dial, not an edge.

True trade cost

Price

Spread ($)

Slippage (bps)

All-in cost—

Breakeven move—

Honest Kelly sizing

Win probability

Market price (0–1)

Edge over price—

Quarter-Kelly stake—

Kelly assumes you know your win-prob. You don't — size down.

Your discipline0d

— /100 reality score

XP0

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Live market data · a real 30-year put-write backtest · rewards discipline, never trading
No profit claims, no signals, education not advice. You place any trades yourself. · about Baseline